Restaurants Canada’s latest forecast calls for commercial foodservice sales to grow to $80.4 billion in 2022. This represents a 24.3% increase over 2021 and would result in annual sales 4.4% above 2019 levels. The forecast for 2022 reflects the continued progress in vaccination rollouts and that most public health restrictions are expected to ease over the remainder of 2021 and early 2022. Growth in sales will also be bolstered by expected gains in real GDP and pent-up consumer demand.
Despite the increase in 2022, commercial foodservice sales are forecast to remain below its long-term trend over the next few years.
Annual sales at quick-service restaurants are expected to grow to $36 billion in 2022. This represents a 6.7% increase above 2019 levels. In contrast, annual sales at full-service restaurants are forecast to advance to $35.4 billion in 2022 – a 3.2% above 2019 levels.
Looking back at this past year, annual commercial foodservice sales are now expected to rise to nearly $64.7 billion, representing a 17.3% increase over 2020, but still 16.1% below 2019 levels. This is roughly $1 billion more than our previous forecast, which called for sales of $63.9 billion in 2021. This reflects stronger-than-expected sales in the summer months.
In the near term however, foodservice sales will continue to be weighed down by the impact of the Delta variant and supply chain disruptions impacting economic activity. In addition, despite expected for continued recovery in sales, foodservice operators continue to face a number of challenges, ranging from rising operating expenses (food and labour), severe labour shortages and tackling the accumulated debt during the pandemic.
For more information, Restaurants Canada members can download their copy of the Q3 2021 Quarterly Forecast here.