Menu Inflation Outlook

Published February 9, 2022

According to Restaurants Canada’s latest Restaurant Outlook Survey, menu prices are expected to increase by an average of 5.3% in 2022. By segment, menu prices are expected to rise by 4.5% at quick-service restaurants, by 5.6% at table-service restaurants and by 5.5% for all other foodservice establishments.

The expected increase is to cover the rising cost of food, higher wages, and other operating expenses (e.g. takeout containers, cleaning supplies). Supply chain disruptions for food and other supplies is another factor, impacting 96% of the restaurants surveyed. Still, restaurants are doing what they can to minimize the impact on guests. Nearly half of respondents said they are absorbing or partially absorbing the cost increase.   

In December 2021, Canada’s inflation rate soared to a 30-year high of 4.8%, due to ongoing supply-chain disruptions, rising energy prices and pent-up consumer demand. By comparison, food prices at grocery stores jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase since 2011. Consumers paid more for meat, vegetable and fruit preparations and baked products and cereals due to weather-related factors (e.g. droughts, floods), higher transportation prices, labour shortages and COVID-19 related containment measures (such as social distancing at food manufacturing plants). 

For the latest foodservice sales and menu inflation trends by segment and by province, click here 

Stephanie Michalicka

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