Just Released: Q1 2022 Quarterly Forecast

Published avril 21, 2022

The outlook for Canada’s foodservice industry has been revised upward with foodservice sales now forecast to grow to $76.3 billion in 2022, representing a 16.5% increase over 2021. As a result, 2022l sales are forecast to be just 0.9% below 2019 levels.

Due to the impact of the Omicron variant, commercial foodservice sales in Q1 2022 are forecast to be 11% below pre-pandemic levels. Revenues at caterers and drinking places are forecast to decline by nearly 40% in Q1 2022 compared to Q1 2019.

A decline in cases and loosening of on-premise restrictions is expected to boost sales in the second quarter. In the third quarter, pent-up consumer demand will help total commercial foodservice sales return to pre-pandemic levels. As a result, total foodservice sales in Q3 are forecast to be 5% above Q3 2019 levels.

Looking further ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic about Q4. While we anticipate that children will be back in school and Canadians will have returned back to the offices (for at least part of the week), a rise in COVID-19 cases in the Fall could restrain consumer spending.

The forecast will hinge on a several issues: the evolution of the virus, the rapid increase in the price of everyday items such as gasoline and groceries, and the
Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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