Canadian Restaurant Intelligence Report. This new report combines the Restaurant Outlook Survey and the Quarterly Forecast into one convenient new research tool with an updated and fresh look. The Quarterly provides a forward-looking perspective on business conditions as well as a forecast over the next two years.
Foodservice sales growth has been stronger than expected, but momentum is expected to moderate. Profitability has improved since the spring, but remains well below pre-pandemic norms.
Restaurant sales continue to grow, but underlying performance remains uneven. Commercial foodservice sales increased by a stronger-than-expected 6.0% in the first quarter of 2026. Adjusted for menu inflation, real sales advanced by 2.7%. Stronger demand at full-service restaurants and caterers offset continued weaker demand at quick-service restaurants.
Sales growth remains solid to start 2026, but underlying conditions are uneven. Foodservice sales rose in January, but profitability and viability remains uneven across segments and regions, reflecting a more complex demand environment.
Topline strength has not translated into profitability. Despite higher sales, six in ten operators report weaker profitability than in 2024, as rising food, labour, and overhead costs continue to compress already-thin margins.
Despite expectations of a difficult year, the foodservice industry outperformed early forecasts.
While the path forward remains uncertain, savvy leaders are using this window to refine operations, embrace innovation and fortify their foundations for sustainable growth.
Uncertainty is the name of the game right now, with a global trade ‘war’ wreaking havoc on consumer and business confidence, and governments around the globe scrambling.
Looking back at the second half of 2024, foodservice sales were a bit hit-and-miss. Quick-service restaurants and caterers continued to post revenue gains in line with expectations. Full-service restaurants and drinking places saw a sharp loss in momentum, especially during the summer.
The summer months have historically been a boon for the restaurant industry as Canadians flock to their local restaurants and bars and warm weather fills patios. It’s also peak travel season for domestic and international travellers, who like to try the culinary diversity that Canada’s foodservice industry has to offer.
While the first half of the year was a challenge for many restaurant operators, the economic outlook moving forward has improved. The second edition of the Quarterly updates Restaurants Canada’s foodservice sales forecast and what restaurant operators can expect over the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.
