Restaurants Canada Revises 2025/26 Sales Forecast
Commercial foodservice sales in Canada rose 6.9% in the first seven months of 2025, surpassing expectations of more modest gains given the impact of the trade war and the ongoing affordability crisis. This growth was driven by the GST/HST holiday and a surge in domestic tourism. In fact, nearly one million fewer Canadians crossed the border in July 2025 compared to December 2024—a dramatic 31% decline. For the first time since 2006, the number of Americans traveling to Canada has exceeded the number of Canadians traveling to the United States.
Despite these strong gains, underlying economic indicators suggest that this pace of growth is not sustainable:
- A recent Angus Reid survey found that 74% of Canadians have reduced discretionary spending this year. The top areas of cutback are dining out at restaurants (56%) and restaurant take-out or delivery (50%).
- Consumer confidence remains weak, with ongoing concerns about job security and household finances.
- The trade war continues to weigh on economic activity and job creation.
- Following robust population growth in 2023 and 2024, growth is expected to stabilize throughout 2026 and early 2027, meaning population increases can no longer be relied upon to drive foodservice sales.
As a result, Canada’s foodservice sales are forecast to moderate over the remainder of 2025, with nominal growth projected at 5.4%—up from the 4.6% forecast in the previous Foodservice Facts report, reflecting stronger-than-expected summer gains.
However, the outlook for 2026 has been revised downward to 2.3% growth (from the previous forecast of 3.4%), reflecting the economic pressures limiting consumer spending and the base effect of 7–8% growth during the summer of 2025. Growth is expected to gradually recover thereafter, averaging 3.6% in 2027, returning to more sustainable, pre-pandemic trends.
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As the Chief Economist and Vice President of Research for Restaurants Canada, Chris Elliott manages and produces a comprehensive research program that has made Restaurants Canada a leading source of information for and about Canada’s $124-billion foodservice industry. Chris tracks and analyzes key industry and economic indicators and translates them into member reports and publications. He also provides research to support Restaurants Canada’s lobbying efforts on issues that affect foodservice operators – from payroll taxes to food costs.
Chris has worked with Restaurants Canada for over 20 years, has a Bachelor of Arts and Master’s Degree in Economics and specializes in economic modelling and forecasting.
