Canadian Foodservice Sales Moderate at Year-End, Slower Growth Ahead
Canadian foodservice sales grew by 3.5% in December 2025 compared to December 2024. This was the weakest monthly growth rate of the year, following steady gains throughout most of 2025, supported in part by stronger domestic tourism. After adjusting for menu price inflation, real sales were essentially flat, increasing by just 0.1%.
One notable trend in the second half of 2025 — especially in December — was that full-service restaurants outperformed quick-service restaurants. In December, sales at full-service restaurants rose by 4.3%, while quick-service restaurants saw a more modest increase of 2.6%.
Part of this difference reflects a “base effect.” Full-service restaurants had a weaker performance in 2024, so this year’s growth represents an improvement compared to those softer results. However, the data also suggests that value-conscious consumers are feeling financial pressure across all segments, including quick-service restaurants. In the past, quick-service restaurants were more resilient during tighter economic periods, but the recent slowdown — and the fact that it is now more pronounced than in full-service — indicates that consumers are pulling back more broadly.
Despite slower spending in November and December, total foodservice sales for 2025 increased by a solid 5.6% compared to 2024. This result exceeded initial expectations amid ongoing economic uncertainty and tariffs from the United States. Strong domestic tourism and the temporary GST/HST holiday helped support consumer spending and contributed to the stronger-than-anticipated annual performance.
According to Restaurants Canada’s latest Quarterly Report, total foodservice sales are projected to grow by just 2.1% in 2026, before stabilizing at 3.4% in 2027. The anticipated slowdown reflects the fading of temporary factors that supported stronger spending in 2025, including the one-time GST/HST holiday and reduced outbound travel to the United States, which redirected some discretionary spending toward domestic foodservice.
To explore more detailed data, visit the updated Restaurant Industry at a Glance dashboard and access the Q4 Quarterly Forecast.
For the most recent same-store sales data, click here to view the latest Moneris report.
As a Research Analyst with Restaurants Canada, Sara Hamdy contributes to a research program that helps make Restaurants Canada a trusted source of insight for and about Canada’s $125-billion foodservice industry. Sara develops and maintains analytical reports and interactive dashboards that present key economic and market trends in a clear and engaging way for members and the public.
Her work supports Restaurants Canada’s advocacy and industry initiatives by transforming complex data into accessible information that guides operators, policymakers, and media.
