Restaurant Sales Start 2026 Strong, but Volatility Persists
Restaurant sales started 2026 on a stronger-than-expected note, with year-over-year growth of 5.5% in January compared to January 2025. While the national picture points to steady momentum, much of the upside was driven by standout regional performance. Manitoba recorded a remarkable 17.7% increase, reflecting in part a weaker base in January 2025 compared to other provinces. This volatility also helps explain why many operators continue to feel on edge, as unpredictable swings in performance make it difficult to plan and secure stable growth. Local economic conditions, including affordability pressures and ongoing challenges such as crime, continue to shape restaurant performance across regions.
At the national level, full-service restaurant sales increased by 7.5% year over year, outperforming quick-service restaurants, which grew by 2.6%. However, once inflation is taken into account, the picture shifts. Real growth moderates to 4.6% for full-service restaurants, while quick-service restaurants decline by 2%, suggesting that higher menu prices are weighing more heavily on value-oriented dining. This points to a subtle but important shift in consumer behaviour, with some Canadians returning to full-service experiences as the price gap between full-service and quick-service narrows.
Provincially, full-service restaurants in Manitoba recorded a 35% surge in sales in January 2026, reflecting a sharp rebound after a challenging prior year. This increase was partly driven by a low base, as sales in January 2025 had declined by approximately 10% compared to 2024. While this pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained, it highlights the significant volatility the sector has experienced in recent years.
Click here to explore more sales trends across Canada in Restaurants Canada’s interactive dashboard.
As a Research Analyst with Restaurants Canada, Sara Hamdy contributes to a research program that helps make Restaurants Canada a trusted source of insight for and about Canada’s $125-billion foodservice industry. Sara develops and maintains analytical reports and interactive dashboards that present key economic and market trends in a clear and engaging way for members and the public.
Her work supports Restaurants Canada’s advocacy and industry initiatives by transforming complex data into accessible information that guides operators, policymakers, and media.
