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Restaurants Canada Updates Restaurant Sales Forecast

Restaurants Canada Updates Restaurant Sales Forecast

Restaurants Canada has updated its quarterly forecast of foodservice sales for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.

As the distorting impacts of above-average population growth and high menu inflation are resulting in stronger nominal growth than would be expected, the best way to view the forecast is to remove population growth and infla­tion and view the underlying trend on a per capita basis. The assumptions for both are listed below. Note that if actual population and menu inflation are higher or lower than forecast, they will have a direct impact on nominal foodservice sales growth.

Overall, the impact of slow economic growth and higher cost of living are forecast to reduce per capita restaurant sales to $2,390 in 2024 from $2,420 in 2023. While the economy is expected to improve in 2025, high household debt will lead to only a modest increase in real per capita sales to $2,400.

At 178%, Canada has the highest debt-to-in­come ratio of the G7 countries. By com­parison, the average debt-to-income ratio is 126% in France and 110% in the United States. If British Columbia and Ontario were countries, they would have among the highest debt-to-income ratios of the OECD nations. As a result, it will take time for consum­er spending to recover, which will lead to a modest recovery in real restaurant sales in the years ahead.

For more information, the Q2 Quarterly report can be accessed here.

Chris Elliott

As the Chief Economist and Vice President of Research for Restaurants Canada, Chris Elliott manages and produces a comprehensive research program that has made Restaurants Canada a leading source of information for and about Canada’s $114-billion foodservice industry. Chris tracks and analyzes key industry and economic indicators and translates them into member reports and publications. He also provides research to support Restaurants Canada’s lobbying efforts on issues that affect foodservice operators – from payroll taxes to food costs.

Chris has worked with Restaurants Canada for over 20 years, has a Bachelor of Arts and Master Degree in Economics and specializes in economic modelling and forecasting.

The Quarterly Canadian Restaurant Intelligence Report